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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 80

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 5-J.Schum punts 51 yards to PHI 29, Center-48-A.DePaola. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 36 for 7 yards (51-D.Lansanah).

The Three Options

GO -2.66 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.21 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 80, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model