4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 58

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to TB 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 43-B.Rainey to TB 15 for 4 yards (42-C.Maragos).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.86 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 58, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP