4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 22-D.Martin up the middle to PHI 41 for 3 yards (23-N.Carroll).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.90 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -1.16 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model