Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 49

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35

What Actually Happened

(2:20) 8-D.Jones punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.41 EP
69% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP

KICK -1.68 EP

21% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
79% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model