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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 8-D.Jones punts 35 yards to TB 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 43-B.Rainey.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.02 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP