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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 5-J.Schum punts 36 yards to end zone, Center-48-A.DePaola, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model