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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:58) 8-D.Jones punts 51 yards to TB 15, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 43-B.Rainey to TB 25 for 10 yards (42-C.Maragos).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.92 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model