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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 88

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to TB 41, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-42-C.Maragos.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +1.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 88, worth -4.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model