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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 2 at the 57

Washington Commanders 14 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:27) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CAR 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.15 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP