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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 56

Carolina Panthers 38 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 8-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.86 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model