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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 7

Carolina Panthers 41 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(10:39) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +3.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.74 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 7, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP