Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 75

Washington Commanders 14 – Carolina Panthers 44

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 86-J.Reed to WAS 32 for 7 yards (20-K.Coleman; 56-A.Klein). WAS-71-Trent.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

What Happened

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.20 EP
55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model