Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 70

Washington Commanders 14 – Carolina Panthers 44

(7:18) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to CAR 19, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-B.Bersin.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model