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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 73

Carolina Panthers 44 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 8-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to WAS 22, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.13 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model