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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 60

Washington Commanders 14 – Carolina Panthers 44

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to CAR 4, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-14-R.Grant.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.51 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 19, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model