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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 99

Carolina Panthers 44 – Washington Commanders 14

What Actually Happened

(:28) (Punt formation) 8-B.Nortman tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (96-H.Bates).

The Three Options

GO -3.84 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.04 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 99, worth -5.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (116 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 53, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +2.84 EP