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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 23

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 7-C.Catanzaro 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-82-M.Leach, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.43 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model