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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Arizona Cardinals
4th & 2 at the 31
Arizona Cardinals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 0
What Actually Happened
(8:25) 3-C.Palmer pass incomplete deep right to 31-D.Johnson (35-E.Reid).
The Three Options
GO
+1.68 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.98 EP
- 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.68 EP
KICK
+0.74 EP
- 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
- 27% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT
-0.39 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
