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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 58

Arizona Cardinals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:52) 2-D.Butler punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.92 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 58, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP