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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 35

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(:04) 9-P.Dawson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.31 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model