4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 45

Arizona Cardinals 13 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:46) 2-D.Butler punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-82-M.Leach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.35 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.34 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP