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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(1:33) 9-P.Dawson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.12 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model