Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 58

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Arizona Cardinals 13

(10:32) 5-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to ARI 15, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.74 EP
65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 58, worth -3.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model