Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 85

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:40) 2-D.Butler punts 47 yards to SF 38, Center-82-M.Leach. 10-B.Ellington MUFFS catch, touched at SF 38, RECOVERED by ARI-59-A.Fua at SF 39. 59-A.Fua to SF 39 for no gain (56-S.Skov).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.51 EP
61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model