4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 4-M.Darr punts 45 yards to NYJ 30, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 35 for 5 yards (49-Z.Vigil).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.00 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model