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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 55

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:09) 33-C.Ivory right guard to NYJ 44 for -1 yards (46-N.Hewitt; 93-N.Suh).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.15 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 55, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model