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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 50

New York Jets 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 4-R.Quigley punts 33 yards to MIA 17, Center-46-T.Purdum. 14-J.Landry pushed ob at MIA 20 for 3 yards (54-J.Lattimore).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model