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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 4-M.Darr punts 41 yards to NYJ 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.56 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP