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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 75

New York Jets 21 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 4-R.Quigley punts 57 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-B.Grimes to MIA 46 for 28 yards.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.85 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -4.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 32, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model