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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 89

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to MIA 45, Center-46-T.Purdum. 21-B.Grimes ran ob at 50 for 5 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.53 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 89, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP