4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 5

Miami Dolphins 7 – New York Jets 35

What Actually Happened

(4:56) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 85-G.Jennings for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [53-M.Catapano].

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 5, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model