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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 23

New York Jets 35 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 8-R.Bullock 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.10 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 23, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 33, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -1.09 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model