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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 33

Miami Dolphins 14 – New York Jets 38

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-D.Parker for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +1.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -0.21 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.49 EP