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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 72

Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 4-B.Colquitt punts 55 yards to NE 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-C.Harper to NE 24 for 7 yards (36-K.Webster).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.52 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP