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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 68

New England Patriots 14 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 6-R.Allen punts 53 yards to DEN 15, Center-49-J.Cardona. 31-O.Bolden to DEN 23 for 8 yards (49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.62 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP