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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 30

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 8-B.McManus 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.75 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.73 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.55 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model