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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 53

New England Patriots 14 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to DEN 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.30 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -3.00 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.70 EP