4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 94

Denver Broncos 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to NE 35, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-31-O.Bolden.

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth +0.69 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 94, worth -5.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 52, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model