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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 52

New England Patriots 14 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 6-R.Allen punts 34 yards to DEN 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 52, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.87 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model