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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 90

New England Patriots 21 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 6-R.Allen punts 52 yards to DEN 38, Center-49-J.Cardona. 31-O.Bolden MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 45. 31-O.Bolden to DEN 45 for no gain (49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -3.52 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.09 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 90, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 47, worth -2.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model