Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 81

Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 7

(9:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to NE 39, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-C.Harper pushed ob at NE 49 for 10 yards (85-V.Green).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.71 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 81, worth -4.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model