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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 3

Denver Broncos 14 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 8-B.McManus 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 3, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP