Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 63

Denver Broncos 17 – New England Patriots 21

(4:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to NE 25, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-85-V.Green.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.85 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model