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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 34

Denver Broncos 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.89 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP