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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to HOU 18, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-K.Mumphery to HOU 30 for 12 yards (17-T.Graham; 91-K.Edebali).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.98 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model