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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Houston Texans
4th & 5 at the 50
Houston Texans 14 – New Orleans Saints 3
What Actually Happened
(2:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.22 EP
Model's Pick
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.71 EP
- 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 50, worth -2.51 EP
KICK
-1.12 EP
- 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
- 70% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT
-0.51 EP
What Happened
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
