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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 20 at the 74

New Orleans Saints 6 – Houston Texans 21

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to HOU 30, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.54 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model