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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 16

Houston Texans 21 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 8-N.Novak 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.17 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 16, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model