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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 6

New Orleans Saints 6 – Houston Texans 24

What Actually Happened

(5:49) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short right to 16-B.Coleman (27-Q.Demps).

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.34 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 6, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model