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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 83

New Orleans Saints 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:11) 6-T.Morstead punts 41 yards to HOU 42, Center-47-J.Drescher. 12-K.Mumphery to 50 for 8 yards (53-R.Humber).

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.00 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 83, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 41, worth -2.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model